From the New York Times
WASHINGTON – When President Obama stood last week with the leaders of Britain and France to denounce Iran’s construction of a secret nuclear plant, the Western powers all appeared to be on the same page.
Behind their show of unity about Iran’s clandestine efforts to manufacture nuclear fuel, however, is a continuing debate among American, European and Israeli spies about a separate component of Iran’s nuclear program: its clandestine efforts to design a nuclear warhead.
The Israelis, who have delivered veiled threats of a military strike, say they believe that Iran has restarted these “weaponization” efforts, which would mark a final step in building a nuclear weapon. The Germans say they believe that the weapons work was never halted. The French have strongly suggested that independent international inspectors have more information about the weapons work than they have made public.
Meanwhile, in closed-door discussions, American spy agencies have stood firm in their conclusion that while Iran may ultimately want a bomb, the country halted work on weapons design in 2003 and probably has not restarted that effort — a judgment first made public in a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate.
The debate, in essence, is a mirror image of the intelligence dispute on the eve of the Iraq war.
This time, United States spy agencies are delivering more cautious assessments about Iran’s clandestine programs than their Western European counterparts. (Read more.)
B.S. Report–Our intelligence agency has determined that Iran has halted its weapons program. And we all know that our intelligence is usually infallible. But Israel, France, and Germany don’t believe that’s the case. Forgetting about Israel for a moment, France and Germany can hardly be called “hawks.”
Until recently, no one even knew about Iran’s “other” nuclear facility so how confident can anyone be that they are not far more advanced in their attempts to develop a bomb? Do we all wait for Israel to receive their nuclear blast before we decide that Iran’s nuclear program has advanced too far? I don’t think Israel is ready to agree to those terms. And can you blame them?
